Wednesday, June 24 2015
Since our previous blog (below), the "Market to Nowhere" has kept on going nowhere. The very tight trading range for the SPY in the last 6 months has changed its direction between 207.0 and 213.8 thirteen times, with no breakout above 213.8. That is a plus and minus change of only $3.4 around a mid-line of $210.4 (or 1.6%), which is not worth paying a lot of attention to from a pure performance standpoint. But, it does give a lot to think about.
As you can see in the graph immediately below, we again deemed the territory between the top two resistance levels ($212.0 and $213.8) as "No Man's Land". Every time in the 60 trading days that the Bulls have pushed the SPY into "No Man's Land" (pink area), it has gotten beaten back by the Bears. The only good news here is that this behavior cannot last forever, and is most likely coming to an end soon.
This rare kind of behavior shows extreme confusion and uncertainty as to which way this market will break out. Of course, since we cannot go sideways forever, there are only two ways the market can go, Up or Down. See our take on which way is the most likely under the graph.
UP or DOWN MARKET ???
In this market, there are compelling reasons as to why this market will continue up as in the last 6 years, but also some compelling reasons as to why it will turn down big-time. In short, the main reasons are:
Reasons for a Down Market Reasons for an Up Market
- Economy not doing well - The behavior of the Fed
- Potential higher interest rates - The behavior of the Fed
- Potential Greek default - The behavior of the Fed
- China economy slowing - The behavior of the Fed
- Oil price and energy profits - The behavior of the Fed
- Stocks overbought - No other place to invest outside of the stock market
- The market may be "topping" - Long-term, tight-range markets break up 70% of the time
- Will go where the big guys want it to - Will go where the big guys want it to go
See more about the last 2 reasons in both columns in our "previous blog" below.
Ok, I gotta say it... I think the SPY will break to the upside in the short-term, followed by a big crash in the next 4-6 months. But, as we all know, MIPS knows better than me (or you), so let's speculate as long as we want to (for fun), but follow the MIPS signals to manage our money (for gains).
And, we may not know why, but WE DO KNOW that the market will go the way the big guys want it to go. Even though the big guys don't like it, they leave a footprint when they are buying and/or selling, and MIPS knows how to track their action, and follow it.
Paul Distefano, PhD
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC
Houston, TX
281-251-MIPS(6477)
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MIPS Members:
As you know by now, the market's "march to nowhere" continues. As said on CNBC, "The biggest story in the stock market this year has been, well, no story at all." And, according to technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky (MKM Partners), "The Dow hasn't done this in over 100 years."
What has the Dow not done in its history going back to the 1890's? The Dow has never traded in a narrow trading range of less than 6.2% for the first 6 months of any year. We are about 3 weeks short of that record time now, and the Dow's max top-to-bottom range has been about 6.2%. That's a plus-or-minus deviation of 3.1% around its mean-line in 6 months !!!
Yes, multiple trillions of dollars have been traded in this time frame with almost no real gains/losses in the indices. Needless to say, that shows a lot of uncertainty. See the graph for the SPY below (with a couple of "fakeout" breakouts).
No one has any idea where this market will go from here, and there are two good cases.
- you need to follow this market daily.
THE BULL's CASE
According to technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky, the Dow has traded in a narrow trading range of 10% (as opposed to 6% now) in the first 6 months of any given year 19 times since 1896. Of these 19 times, almost 70% or the time (13 out of 19), the market ended up higher for the remainder of the year. We have 3 weeks left to go in the 1st 6 months of this year. This market may still have steam, and the little guys could push it much higher with euphoric buying.
THE BEAR's CASE
There is a good chance that all of this "flatness" is NOT all about uncertainty, but is part of a "rollover" of this 6.5 year bull market into a full-fledged bear market. Of course, all rollovers are caused by the big guys selling at the top of a bull market (like now), or buying at the bottom of a bear market (like in 2009). At a top, the big guys sell the market down, and the little guys buy the dips right back up to the tops. A "topping" market takes the form of a "rollover" (instead of an immediate "reversal") because it takes the big guys at least 12 months to dump the major part of their portfolios; and then they let the little guys ride it down all the way to the bottom for the umpteenth time. SEE THE GRAPH IMMEDIATELY BELOW. If this indeed what is going on, we only have a few months left, so watch closely.
OUR ADVANTAGE
We can't "go this alone" and try to pick the time that this market is going to crash. We are not smart enough and we do not think fast enough to even come close. We are not going to out-think the mathematics that make up good models and go through even one thousandth of the conditions that the computer can analyze in milliseconds.
For example, study the graph below (from TimerTrac.com with verified signals) to see how MIPS3 actually traded the SPY in 2008. Who would you bet on: yourself, or MIPS, or some other model that you have not seen successfully handle a market crash? I know how I would answer that question. Stay tuned !!!
Monday, June 08 2015
As you know by now, the market's "march to nowhere" continues. As said on CNBC, "The biggest story in the stock market this year has been, well, no story at all." And, according to technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky (MKM Partners), "The Dow hasn't done this in over 100 years."
What has the Dow not done in its history going back to the 1890's? The Dow has never traded in a narrow trading range of less than 6.2% for the first 6 months of any year. We are about 3 weeks short of that record time now, and the Dow's max top-to-bottom range has been about 6.2%. That's a plus-or-minus deviation of 3.1% around its mean-line in 6 months !!!
Yes, multiple trillions of dollars have been traded in this time frame with almost no real gains/losses in the indices. Needless to say, that shows a lot of uncertainty. See the graph for the SPY below (with a couple of "fakeout" breakouts).
No one has any idea where this market will go from here, and there are two good cases.
- you need to follow this market daily.
THE BULL's CASE
According to technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky, the Dow has traded in a narrow trading range of 10% (as opposed to 6% now) in the first 6 months of any given year 19 times since 1896. Of these 19 times, almost 70% or the time (13 out of 19), the market ended up higher for the remainder of the year. We have 3 weeks left to go in the 1st 6 months of this year. This market may still have steam, and the little guys could push it much higher with euphoric buying.
THE BEAR's CASE
There is a good chance that all of this "flatness" is NOT all about uncertainty, but is part of a "rollover" of this 6.5 year bull market into a full-fledged bear market. Of course, all rollovers are caused by the big guys selling at the top of a bull market (like now), or buying at the bottom of a bear market (like in 2009). At a top, the big guys sell the market down, and the little guys buy the dips right back up to the tops. A "topping" market takes the form of a "rollover" (instead of an immediate "reversal") because it takes the big guys at least 12 months to dump the major part of their portfolios; and then they let the little guys ride it down all the way to the bottom for the umpteenth time. SEE THE GRAPH IMMEDIATELY BELOW. If this indeed what is going on, we only have a few months left, so watch closely.
OUR ADVANTAGE
We can't "go this alone" and try to pick the time that this market is going to crash. We are not smart enough and we do not think fast enough to even come close. We are not going to out-think the mathematics that make up good models and go through even one thousandth of the conditions that the computer can analyze in milliseconds.
For example, study the graph below (from TimerTrac.com with verified signals) to see how MIPS3 actually traded the SPY in 2008. Who would you bet on: yourself, or MIPS, or some other model that you have not seen successfully handle a market crash? I know how I would answer that question. Stay tuned !!!
Thursday, May 14 2015
After 3 failed attempts in the last 15 days, the SPY finally broke up above its very strong resistance level and closed on a new high at 212.2 (and 2121 on the S&P500). While we are pleased that the S&P 500 made a new high, and the breakout was on a big rise today following an "up-gap" from yesterday, the volume was relatively low for a breakout (just a little negative, but very bullish overall).
The market movement seems to have transitioned from a sideways market to a "rising wedge" pattern, which usually breaks out following the trend that got it there in the first place (up, in this case). So far it has, and all is good. However, as we all know, the Bears are most likely NOT going to give up easily (they have a ton of short positions to "protect", so they may be selling big-time). On the other hand, if the Bears decide to "cover" their outstanding shorts, that would be VERY bullish. So, although things look bullish, this market can go either way from here. We can watch the price movements and chart patterns as they happen, but we can't analyze these volume-weighted movements anywhere close to how intricately MIPS does. For that reason (and many more), let's rely on MIPS to help us navigate our portfolio in these uncertain times.
Stay tuned...
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Needless to say, in the last few days the market has not performed well. In fact, some emails that we have received are borderline "panic". So, how bad is the market now and where are we headed?
If we look at a daily chart, as usual it looks like the market is coming apart (see the 1st graph below). From this viewpoint, we can see very clearly that the SPY hit the Bear's front-line resistance at 212.0 twice in five days, and got slammed back both times ("Bam"). Even though the market has been flat for over 5 months, the daily action has been very volatile. So, even though it is very obvious that the short-term trend is "flat", it is difficult to see where the intermediate-term is going.
Like most other things in life, if we want to see the "big picture" we need to step back and look at the situation from afar. In this case, let's turn to a graph with weekly data instead of daily data (kind of smooths out the crazy ups-and-downs of everyday activities, as the "floor trades" sell one day and buy back the next.
The next graph shows the rare, "near perfect" 3-year trend from January 2012 through today (5/06/2015). [The trend line is white and the 50-week EMA is green.] As you can see, the SPY hit (or dropped back close to), its trend line (or EMA line) 7-8 times, but the trend line proved to be excellent resistance as the SPY bounced back up every time. As you can see, we are there again today.
Lots of smallish short-term "traders" (if we can call them that) got whipsawed mercilessly in this "froth" above the trendline, a place where the big floor traders live. Little guys trying to navigate that territory usually get killed. And, what for? Why take the risk of trading against the big guys IN THEIR OWN EXCLUSIVE TERRITORY when you can experience good returns following the trend. Greed, maybe?
We just said the you could make good money following the trend instead of jumping into the froth above the trendline and getting killed. OK, so how did MIPS do in this time period? For that, we refer to TimerTrac.com, where MIPS3 has been "verified" since late 2005 (MIPS4 would have done better, but it was not introduced until 1Q'13).
As you can see below, MIPS3 trading 1.5x leverage SPY ended up +87%, while the SPY was up +64%.
- Just in case you don't know, if you did that well for the next 21 years, your portfolio then would be
about 80 times the value of what you have now (e.g., $50,000 would be about $4,000,000) !!!
- Still want to "play the froth" and lose your butt, or can you be patient and possibly get rich ?
Stay tuned and follow MIPS !!!
Thursday, May 07 2015
Needless to say, in the last few days the market has not performed well. In fact, some emails that we have received are borderline "panic". So, how bad is the market now and where are we headed?
If we look at a daily chart, as usual it looks like the market is coming apart (see the 1st graph below). From this viewpoint, we can see very clearly that the SPY hit the Bear's front-line resistance at 212.0 twice in five days, and got slammed back both times ("Bam"). Even though the market has been flat for over 5 months, the daily action has been very volatile. So, even though it is very obvious that the short-term trend is "flat", it is difficult to see where the intermediate-term is going.
Like most other things in life, if we want to see the "big picture" we need to step back and look at the situation from afar. In this case, let's turn to a graph with weekly data instead of daily data (kind of smooths out the crazy ups-and-downs of everyday activities, as the "floor traders" sell one day and buy back the next.
The next graph shows the rare, "near perfect" 3-year trend from January 2012 through today (5/06/2015). [The trendline is white and the 50-week EMA is green.] As you can see, the SPY hit (or dropped back close to), its trendline (or EMA line) 7-8 times, but the trendline proved to be excellent resistance as the SPY bounced back up every time. As you can see, we are there again today.
Lots of smallish short-term "traders" (if we can call them that) got whipsawed mercilessly in this "froth" above the trendline, a place where the big floor traders live. Little guys trying to navigate that territory usually get killed. And, what for? Why take the risk of trading against the big guys IN THEIR OWN EXCLUSIVE TERRITORY when you can experience good returns following the trend. Greed, maybe?
We just said the you could make good money following the trend instead of jumping into the froth above the trendline and getting killed. OK, so how did MIPS do in this time period? For that, we refer to TimerTrac.com, where MIPS3 has been "verified" since late 2005 (MIPS4 would have done better, but it was not introduced until 1Q'13).
As you can see below, MIPS3 trading 1.5x leverage SPY ended up +87%, while the SPY was up +64%.
- Just in case you don't know, if you did that well for the next 21 years, your portfolio then would be
about 80 times the value of what you have now (e.g., $50,000 would be about $4,000,000) !!!
- Still want to "play the froth" and lose your butt, or can you be patient and possibly get rich ?
Stay tuned and follow MIPS !!!
Sunday, May 03 2015
Most investors are sick and tired of hearing about the market "moving sideways" for the last 5 months !!! And by now, no one seems to care why. They have totally accepted that the real reason for this is "universal uncertainty" in all markets. No point in beating that drum anymore.
But, the question remains.... "Where do we go from here" ?
We believe that the market will break to the upside from here as in the graph immediately below.
Our rationale is that:
1) the market made a big reversal on Friday, following Apple's earnings and Yellen's dovish speech,
2) the market seems to have formed a new uptrend within the sideways pattern (black line), and
3) at 210.7, the SPY is about 1/2 of 1% from its all-time high.
Opposite View:
Of course, with the market as fragile as it is now, almost ANY bad news (earnings, Greece, China, etc.), could upset expected up movements, and the SPY could very easily head in the opposite direction of that shown above. Remember, the Bear's "front-line" at 212.0 has provided very strong "resistance level" to any movements above that. And, the Bears are not going to give up without a fight (as they have proven for the last 5+ months).
 
It's interesting to study the market and attempt to forecast what might happen in the near future. But, these types of forecasts are usually not very accurate. That is why investors need a strong, analytic model like MIPS to dig deep into the roots of what is happening and provide them with a quantitative judgement of the market direction.
So, let's wait for MIPS to tell us what to do next !!!
Sunday, April 26 2015
As most of you know, this market has been "flat" and going nowhere for over 5 months now (see our previous blog and the updated graph immediately below).
We all know that a market that stays flat for 5 MONTHS is really "long-in-the-tooth". Flat markets simply DO NOT last much longer than this. Why? Because $ trillions have changed hands (aka "traded") and the market has changed less than 3% !!!
Usually, in these types of flat markets:
1) the market breaks out in the same direction that it came in,
2) the longer the market stays sideways, the bigger the breakout.
Since these types of markets result from universal uncertainty, a major "catalyst" is necessary to inspire one side or the other to move with force (and then, the other side simply gives up and joins the newly formed trend). From where we are today, I see Apple as that catalyst. After the close on Monday, Apple will announce their earnings and offer their guidance for the near-term future. So, Tuesday could be a BIG day for the US markets. But, the large/institutional investors that know what Apple is going to say could also influence the market in Monday's trading.
Remember, above $212 on the SPY is "new high" territory !!!
I personally believe that we will break to the updside. This is just my opinion, not that of MIPS. We can believe what we want, but let's wait for MIPS to tell us what to do going forward. Stay tuned...
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Talk about "A Market Going Nowhere, Fast" - you have just witnessed one. For the last FIVE MONTHS, the SPY has traded in a rather tight trading range of plus-and-minus 3.5% around the mid-line of a price range between 197.9 and 212.2 (see graph below). And, the SPY has experienced 12 short-term trend changes in this time period (if you can call them that). Even more remarkable is that, with all of these "wild" changes, the SPY on 3/31/15 was only 0.43% higher than it was on 12/31/14.
This has been a VERY volatile market. For example, the Dow experienced 16 days of triple-digit moves in March alone (that's 16 triple-digit days out of 22 trading days, or 73% of the days). These 16 triple-digit days accounted for 3,149 "swing" points for the Dow, and yet it closed less than 2% higher for the month.
The stock market continually experiences flat or sideways markets (aka "consolidation patterns"), but they rarely last 5 months. This one is long in the tooth. The stats show that: (a) most of the time the market breaks out of the pattern in the direction from which it came in (up in our case) and (b) the longer the time frame of the sideways pattern, the bigger the following breakout move is.
Obviously, this market has no short-term trend or direction now (other than flat-as-a-pancake), but the long-term trend is still up. The next few days are vital. In order for the bulls to keep running, the SPY must break above the strong resistance at 212.2 (its all-time high) with some degree of strength. If that does not happen in a relatively short period of time, the bears may get rejuvenated and may finally push this market down big, at least a "correction" if not the "big one".
One positive aspect of a long-term sideways pattern is that MIPS usually gets set to "trigger" faster after being "flat" for over 100 days (think of what that does to 20-50-100 day EMAs). Because of moves like this (of lack thereof), a small change can look big to MIPS after months of plus-and-minus 3%.
Until further notice, we are still bullish, mainly because the long-term trend is still up. No matter what, we will be waiting for the MIPS models to provide our future guidance (as usual). Stay tuned...
Thursday, April 16 2015
Press ? for keyboard shortcuts.
As you know, the MIPS models trade an "average" of about 12 times/year. Of course, this means that the models can trade as many as 16-20 times in some years (like 2008-2009-2010) or as few as 2-4 times in other years (like 2013-2014). This is not by design, it depends upon the number of trend changes (and the volatility) in a given year.
At any rate, we have many MIPS members now who like to trade more often with the MIPS signals. On our website, we have always offered traditional trading ideas under the "services" tab in our main menu. This includes trading ETFs like the SPY, IWM, QQQ, etc., on long signals and their shorts or inverse funds on short signals. We recommend that our traders include a large percentage of SPY in any of their trading profiles because this is what MIPS is based upon. But, a little of the others (up to 50%) is OK. And, for more aggressive investors, we also approve of using some leverage. Our favorite is being long 1.5x SPY on long signals and being short 1.0x SPY on short signals (we do this by investing 50% in SPY and 50% in SSO on long signals, and 100% SH on short signals).
MIPS models (MIPS1, MIPS2, MIPS3 and MIPS4)
Our "Services" section covers the above in detail, and it explains the pros and cons of trading with any of the MIPS trading models. Basically, we highly recommend MIPS4 because it is our newest, best model trading ETF funds on the "next day's Open". But, if you must trade on the "next day's Close" (as in many 401K accounts), we recommend that you use MIPS3. You would only use MIPS2 if you can can't trade (or do not want to trade) over about 6 times/year. Use MIPS1 only if you can trade only 1-2 times/year (not recommended, but still better than buy-and-hold).
FOR AGGRESSIVE TRADERS THAT WANT TO TRADE MORE OFTEN and do not mind some extra effort on their part, we have added a new section to our "Services" page called "AGGRESSIVE TRADING" (this has been added as a blue "button" on the top left of our "Services" page www.mipstiming.com/services ).
Or, YOU CAN READ EXCERPTS OF IT HERE...
STRATEGIC and HIGHER-FREQUENCY TRADING
Even though we DO NOT recommend the strategies below for the average investor, active investors and day traders have shared with us what they have done to produce great results, either by taking more risk or working harder to prepare for higher frequency trades. IN ALL CASES THEY ARE RELYING ON THE MIPS MODELS TO PROVIDE THEM WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET (and it has done so correctly 65--70% of the time in the last 9 years). Many times, these investors are managing only a portion of their MIPS money with the strategies below, and the rest with the recommended MIPS trading profiles in the "Services" section.
Higher Frequency Trading For Long/Short Investors:
1) Aggressive investors trade more leverage than 1.5x SPY. They may trade:
a) Double leverage (2x) long/short.
b) Triple leverage (3x) long/short (not recommended).
c) Double (2x) or triple (3x) leverage long and single leverage (1x) short.
2) Use the MIPS trends to trade options, futures, etc., "on the money", and renew them until the current trend changes
direction.
3) Follow the trend with MIPS, and rotate "high momentum" individual stocks:
a) Use a "stock screener" (Morningstar, VectorVest, Omni-Trader, etc.) to identify the best 5-10 top performing stocks,
buy them on long signals, and rotate them every day or week or month, depending on how often you want to trade.
b) Ditto the above to short the worst 5-10 performing stocks on short signals, and rotate them every day or week or
month.
4) Ditto #2 immediately above, but with "high momentum" ETFs instead of with individual stocks.
5) Trade the "hottest sectors" in the S&P 500 (instead of all sectors, which are included in the Index and the SPY):
a) On long signals, buy the top performing 3-4 S&P 500 Sectors (like maybe technology, health care, financials, etc.),
and rotate them every week or month.
b) on short signals, short the worst performing 3-4 S&P 500 Sectors (like maybe energy, industrial, materials), and
rotate them every week or month.
6) Most of us know Pareto's Principle as the 80-20% Rule. It implies that, in general, 80% of the effects come
from 20% of the causes (Google it). For the stock market, Marty Chenard from www.stocktiming.com coined
the 70-20-10% Rule. He proposed that 70% of your success in trading depends upon your trades being
"in sync" with market movements/trends (long in up markets, etc.); 20% depends upon you being in the right
sectors at the right time; and the remaining 10% depends upon the stocks that you buy in these sectors.
To implement this methodology, we propose that you follow the steps below:
i.) MIPS - the first part of your success should come from MIPS correctly identifying up/down trends
(you want to be long on uptrends; short on downtrends; and in cash on flat/sideways trends).
ii.) Hot Sectors in #5 above - The second part should come from your picks of the top 2-3 Hot Sectors as described, and
iii) High Momentum Stocks/ETFs in #3 or #4 above - The last part should come from trading the top 2-3 "High Momentum"
stocks or ETFs in each sector from ii.) above.
Of course, in down markets, you would do the inverse (look for the worst sectors, stocks, ETFs).
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Many of the above strategies can greatly increase the number of trades with MIPS signals without violating the trend. If MIPS identifies the trends correctly (which it has done very well in the last 9 years), and if MIPS members are willing to put in the extra effort, they could possibly make more $'s with the above trading strategies than by simply holding 1-3 positions (long or short) the entire signal life of every trade.
We do not track or report the performance of any of the above strategies.
Sunday, April 12 2015
Press ? for keyboard shortcuts.
Talk about "A Market Going Nowhere, Fast" - you have just witnessed one. For the last FIVE MONTHS, the SPY has traded in a rather tight trading range of plus-and-minus 3.5% around the mid-line of a price range between 197.9 and 212.2 (see graph below). And, the SPY has experienced 12 short-term trend changes in this time period (if you can call them that). Even more remarkable is that, with all of these "wild" changes, the SPY on 3/31/15 was only 0.43% higher than it was on 12/31/14.
This has been a VERY volatile market. For example, the Dow experienced 16 days of triple-digit moves in March alone (that's 16 triple-digit days out of 22 trading days, or 73% of the days). These 16 triple-digit days accounted for 3,149 "swing" points for the Dow, and yet it closed less than 2% higher for the month.
The stock market continually experiences flat or sideways markets (aka "consolidation patterns"), but they rarely last 5 months. This one is long in the tooth. The stats show that: (a) most of the time the market breaks out of the pattern in the direction from which it came in (up in our case) and (b) the longer the time frame of the sideways pattern, the bigger the following breakout move is.
Obviously, this market has no short-term trend or direction now (other than flat-as-a-pancake), but the long-term trend is still up. The next few days are vital. In order for the bulls to keep running, the SPY must break above the strong resistance at 212.2 (its all-time high) with some degree of strength. If that does not happen in a relatively short period of time, the bears may get rejuvenated and may finally push this market down big, at least a "correction" if not the "big one".
One positive aspect of a long-term sideways pattern is that MIPS usually gets set to "trigger" faster after being "flat" for over 100 days (think of what that does to 20-50-100 day EMAs). Because of moves like this (or lack thereof), a small change can look big to MIPS after months of plus-and-minus 3%.
Until further notice, we are still bullish, mainly because the long-term trend is still up. No matter what, we will be waiting for the MIPS models to provide our future guidance (as usual). Stay tuned...
Tuesday, April 07 2015
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Here we go again... "Bad Economic News = Good Market News"
Getting kind of old, isn't it? But, at least, it is very predictable.
Again, with the terrible new jobs report, the market reacted to what it thought Aunt Janet would think, instead of the ramifications of the bad news on our economy. This can't go on forever, but it can as long as the Fed supports it. Remember, the Fat Kats like the Fed's free money (actually our money); and they will do whatever they can to keep it rolling, like supporting the up market up to make Yellen look good and to keep her in line.
The good news for us is that the SPY bounced off of its 100-day EMA to the upside again today. See the orange ellipses in the graph below. This is the 3rd time this has happened in the last 3 weeks, but this will not continue to go on much longer.
If the SPY is going to break out of its very long "No-Man's-Land" pattern at 209, and challenge its all time high at 212.2 again, it needs to keeps going up from here. A fail here would not be good. I think that it will, but I trust MIPS' guidance much more than my own. So, we wait again. Stay tuned...
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The only good news that I could muster up out of the last 2-3 weeks of "market noise" was that:
1) the Fed is still "dovish" with regard to raising interest rates,
2) the Fed still "rules",
3) relatively low volume says that it was not the Fat Kats causing last week's minor sell-off,
4) the SPY closed up above its 100-day EMA in the last two "attacks", and
5) this sideways trading pattern is getting "long in the tooth".
From this, one could expect a market bounce-back going forward, if not an SPY run-up to above $209. But, of course, it's anybody's guess from here, so let's simply follow MIPS' advice. Stay tuned !!!
BTW, these "sideways trading patterns" do not last forever. Many times, they break out in the same direction that they went in (up, in this case). And, the longer the time in a sideways pattern, the bigger the market move after the breakout.
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