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Market Timing

Sunday, August 26 2018

If you are following the market closely, you know that the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Russell 2000 Indices have all hit new "All-Time Highs" last week (and the Dow is close).

Remember, rising earnings result in rising stock market prices (almost always), and geopolitical "news", etc, etc, etc, and other "junk" usually results simply in "interruptions".  All of our MIPS models strive to avoid trading these "interruptions", mainly to prevent getting whipsawed. 

The latest version of the MIPS models ("Blaster Series" in 1Q'16) has multiple new algorithms that have improved this to a great degree.  For example, with "relativity" built in to the models, a 5-7% drop in a market that is up 20-24% over the last 12-15 months is not nearly as damaging as a drop of 3-4% in a market that is up only 6-8% over its last 9-15 months.

So, now the bull run is STILL gaining strength (see graphs below). Of course, at the heights that we are at now, a "reversal" could come at any time, sometimes seemingly for no reason at all. 

That is why we need a comprehensive quantitative model like MIPS that looks at and calculates changes in the market trend 1,000 times faster and better than we can. 
Stay tuned...




Paul Distefano, PhD
CEO / Founder
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC
Houston, TX

Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 12:40 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
Monday, August 20 2018

Members are familiar with the MIPS models having an up-bias since the Presidential elections ("Long" signals over 99% of the time) .  We have been in a strong up-market since then (except for the turmoil in 1Q'18), so this MIPS behavior should be expected.  During this time, lots of other models have suffered from way too much trading (for no reason known to me).

So, from the MIPS viewpoint, what do "things" look like now
Since MIPS is basically a trend following model, it is up strong.  But if the strong uptrend continues, our reversion-to-the-mean algos could kick in and reverse the MIPS up-bias.  Or, the market itself could collapse.  None of us really knows what the market will do from here, nor do we know how MIPS will respond.

So, all we can really do is to wait for MIPS to tell us what to do.  Don't miss it, as it could be a biggie either up or down.

S&P 500 Index Long-Term Trend (since 2012)

SPY Near All-Time High

QQQ Over All-Time Highs

Paul Distefano, PhD
CEO / Founder
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC
Houston, TX

Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 12:34 am   |  Permalink   |  Email

MIPS Timing Systems
P.O. Box 925214
Houston, TX  77292

An affordable and efficient stock market timing tool. Contact MIPS
281-251-MIPS (6477)