Most investors are sick and tired of hearing about the market "moving sideways" for the last 5 months !!! And by now, no one seems to care why. They have totally accepted that the real reason for this is "universal uncertainty" in all markets. No point in beating that drum anymore.
But, the question remains.... "Where do we go from here" ?
We believe that the market will break to the upside from here as in the graph immediately below.
Our rationale is that:
1) the market made a big reversal on Friday, following Apple's earnings and Yellen's dovish speech,
2) the market seems to have formed a new uptrend within the sideways pattern (black line), and
3) at 210.7, the SPY is about 1/2 of 1% from its all-time high.
Opposite View:
Of course, with the market as fragile as it is now, almost ANY bad news (earnings, Greece, China, etc.), could upset expected up movements, and the SPY could very easily head in the opposite direction of that shown above. Remember, the Bear's "front-line" at 212.0 has provided very strong "resistance level" to any movements above that. And, the Bears are not going to give up without a fight (as they have proven for the last 5+ months).
It's interesting to study the market and attempt to forecast what might happen in the near future. But, these types of forecasts are usually not very accurate. That is why investors need a strong, analytic model like MIPS to dig deep into the roots of what is happening and provide them with a quantitative judgement of the market direction.
So, let's wait for MIPS to tell us what to do next !!!
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