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Market Timing

Tuesday, April 21 2020

UPDATE
- see the last day in the chart immediately below...
- is this a "Breakout" to the downside?
- I think so, but am not quite ready to bet on it (more analysis tonight may change my mind)
- more later...
PD

Paul Distefano, PhD
Founder / Developer
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC
Houston, TX
Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 10:19 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
Monday, April 20 2020
In over 80% of the MARKET CRASHES since the Great Depression, the market has started by dropping between 20-35% somewhat quickly, and then it bounced back up and recovered a certain % of the 1st leg of the drop (this is referred to as a "Sucker Rally").  History has shown that, if the rally bounces back up and "retracks" (my word) more than 50% of the initial drop, the "Crash" is over.  I call this the "50% Retracement Line"

On the other hand, if the Sucker Rally fails to bounce above the 50% Retrackment Line, the market will head back down to either (a) test the previous low, or (b) drop further to between minus 45-60% from the all-time high.  We are experiencing just this at this time. 
As you can see in the graph below, so far this market has followed this pattern from the initial drop of about 34%; into a Sucker Rally.  The Sucker Rally is now right on (or slightly below)     
what we call the "50% Retracement Line".  As you can see, this market drop has moved VERY FAST since it started on 02/20/2020.  But, since it got real close to the 50% Retrackment Line, it has "stalled" for seven straight days (i.e., it traded  in a plus/minus 2% range).  Compare this to the first seven days after 2/20/2020, where the market dropped about 15% !!!
So, where do we go from here... Let's stay alert and follow MIPS signals.
CAUTION: in this crazy market, lots of things that followed some distinct patterns in the past might not even come close to doing that in this fast moving, volatile market.
SPY YTD in 2020 through April 20th.
Paul Distefano, PhD
Founder / Developer
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC
Houston, TX
Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 10:32 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
Thursday, April 16 2020

We all know that the “simple” positons we can have with our stock market investments are:
   1.) Long – Own equities (and bonds)
   2.) Short –
Own “inverse” equities (betting against the market)

   3.) Cash -- Own only cash

All quantitative trading strategies have formulas and indicators that they use to determine if the market is going up or going down,
hence telling the developers whether they should be Long or Short. These formulas and indicators include:

- following the trend,

- calculating the strength of a market’s momentum,

- calculating the “rate of change” (slow or fast),

- using formulas like “Fibonacci”,
- tracking the numbers of stocks hitting new highs (and new lows),

- tracking the number of stocks that are above/below their 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages,

- using the MACD formulas, and

- including literally hundreds more.

From the strength of the combination of the above (and many more), quantitative models tell investors whether to be Long or Short.
The objective is to make money in both up and down markets by being Long in up markets and Short in down markets. Good models
do just that most of the time, and their  followers make money in both up and down markets.


Since we do not make money (other than a tiny amount from  bank interest or money market funds) when our money is in cash,
Cash signals seem to be useless.!!!

So, where do
Cash signals come from, and what does being in Cash do for us?


What Cash positions do for Investors:

 Cash positions do not make money for us, BUT cash positions often prevent us from losing lots of money (as in "avoiding the crash")

Where do Cash signals come from:

To my knowledge, there are no algorithms, indicators, formulas, etc. that calculate and “issue” cash signals. In fact, many timing
models only issue Long and Short signals (no Cash).  If model developers (like MIPS) want the safety of occasionally being in an
all-cash position, the developers themselves
need
to come up the ideas on how to determine when we should be in cash, and then
“program this” into their models.


How MIPS timing models were programed to issue Cash Signals:

Because the MIPS algorithms are proprietary, we do not explain exactly how we issue cash signals.

1.) Traditional “Stops”

     MIPS goes to cash after it has lost a certain (not fixed) percentage amount from a “high point” determined

     within the model; or from a certain maximum drawdown amount.  Stops really mean “I don’t know why,
     but you are not doing well so I am going to shut you down until further notice”.  That is a Cash Signal.   

2.) Too Close to Call Decision

      MIPS literally uses hundreds of indicators and algorithms combined with mathematical equations to

      determine the % that is Long and the % that is Short, To issue a new signal, the winning position must be
      ahead by a significant amount, or the model will default into a Cash position (too close to call).  For

      example, if the resulting decision is 55% long and 45% short, the model may issue a Long Signal; but if
      the result is 51% long and 49% short, it would almost surely issue a Cash Signal (to close to call Long or
      Short).     

 

3.) Volatility Too High

      There are many different definitions of volatility (like the VIX, standard deviation, etc).  The greatest
       impacts on quantitative models are (a) how fast are the market changes and (b) how “large” are the changes
       relative to other similar changes in the past. Recently, we experienced some of the biggest changes in the
       history of the US stock markets. In March 2020, the SPY fell the fastest and lowest in one week
than at
       any
other time since 1933 (almost 90 years ago). The daily changes in 2020 are shocking when compared to
       the long-term performance of the market.

       For  example, it is reported that the US stock market (Dow or SP 500) has risen close to 7% per year (after

       inflation) for over the last 80 years.  That  means that the annual percent change would have been between
       9-10% per year with inflation.  

       To make my point,  let’s use 10%  gains per year. That amounts to 0.8% per month (or approx. 0.04% / day).
       - In the
first 5 days of March 2020, the SPY dropped over 11.5%, which is more than the 1 year
average
         change in the past.

       - One month after 2/19/20, the SPY was down 29% (took almost 3 average years in the past to change that much).
       - Between Mar 2 - Apr 15, there were 15 days with changes greater than 4%; and 4 days with greater than 9%.
      
       In the past, where one might have lost an average of 1.5-2,5% in five bad days, one could have lost
       over 25% in three bad days in 2020. With odds like that
,
the risk/reward ratio does not fit well for an
       investor concerned about preservation of capital.  In this environment, the potential losses (risk) are far
       higher than possible gains (rewards). This high risk show lead to more time in cash.

            

4.) Market Moving too Fast

     In a fast-moving market, like now, many commercial timing models are not programmed to handle fast moving
     changes with such elevated daily changes. A good model would determine this and spend more time in cash.


Trading in this market environment is comparable to testing a new race car on a track that was built 20 years ago.
Let’s say that until now, there had been no “crashes’ from race cars making 180 degree turns on this track.  Of course,
the embankments on these turns were designed to be quite a bit higher on the outside to prevent race cars from simply
flying off the track.
Even
if this track had been used successfully for the past 20 years by race cars going at 200 miles/hour;
it would not be surpris
ing
if a race car going 300 miles/hour went flying off the embankment. The reason, of course, is that
the track was not designed to handle cars going that fast. This is
similar to the market we are in now. Numerous
models
in use today were NOT designed for this
extreme volatility. Additionally, many models are not prepared to internally make
that determination
and go to CASH until after the market settles down, but MIPS is programmed to act long before then.

 

With respect to all of the above, MIPS has internal algorithms that address each issue. This helps investors attain good returns during
the trading day, and still sleep well at night.

 

Good trading…

 

Paul Distefano, PhD
Founder / Developer
MIPS Timing Systems

Houston, TX

Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 10:12 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
Wednesday, April 15 2020
One of the most proven patterns in the stock market occurs during "Crashes".

About 80% of the time that the market (like SP 500) drops 20% or more (like Leg 1 at -34% in the graph below) and then experiences
a retracement of over 50% of the drop, that usually means that the bottom has been reached.

But, if the market stalls at the 50% retracement point level and heads back down, it will either:
  (a) test the recent bottom and head back up to new highs over time, or
  (b) continue the drop at a faster pace and end up dropping to up to 2 times more than the first drop (Leg 2) before it heads back up

In the graph below, you can see that we are basically "there now" (D-Day is here) !!!
- instead of guessing, let's let MIPS tell us what to do next...

Paul Distefano, PhD
Founder / Developer
MIPS Timing Systems
Houston, TX
Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 12:32 am   |  Permalink   |  Email
Saturday, April 04 2020
There are many things that make the current stock market a dangerous place to be.  We all know most of them, but I wanted to point out that the SP 500 Index broke below its 11-year Trend Line in early April 2020.  See graph below... More later.!!!
image.png

Paul Distefano, PhD
Founder / Lead Developer
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC
Houston, TX
Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 10:24 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
Sunday, March 22 2020
The title above kind of speaks for itself.  Rather that me going on about what happened so far in 2020, and my opinions as to why, let's just get to the point.  In 2020 YTD, the SPY is down -29% and the MIPS models are down only -3%. That, we are very proud of. 
 
Graph #1
- In 2020, SPY -29%

 More Bad News - The SPY hit and fell below its last support level (#3 below) and the next one is "way down".
image.png


Graph #2 - In 2020, MIPS -3%  (from TimerTrac.com)
More Good News -- If the SPY goes down further, MIPS will go up higher (as in 2008, to over +50%)
image.png

Note: The above charts from TimerTrac.com are calculated from actual, verified signals from MIPS (all MIPS models
issued the same signals in 2020). When MIPS models issue a signal after the market close, MIPS members are to trade
on the next days open. The calculated numbers are not 100% equal to the numbers from real trades because: (a) signals 
issued to trade on the open may execute 2-3 minutes late (and 3-4% different than the open), and (b) buying the SH is not
quite the same as shorting the SPY, and (c) the SPY is not exactly the same as the S&P Index which it follows. 
The GOOD NEWS is that these number are indeed close enough for us to analyze and track our performance.

Good Trading...
Paul Distefano, PhD
Founder / Owner
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC
Houston, TX
281-251-MIPS(6477)
www.mipstiming.com
Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 03:18 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
Thursday, March 19 2020
In the graph below, you can see that the SPY is sitting just on top of it's last support level from Dec'19  ("Support 3").
If the SPY breaks Support 3, there is not another one until way, way down (like near a real "Bottom").
- all of the MIPS models (except MIPS1) are "Short", so we are not worried, yet !!!
Stay tuned...