The market has undergone a remarkable rebound so far in Feb'14 (see graph below). In the last 10 days, the SPY regained almost all of the ground that it lost in the 10 days before that. Problem is, however, that the rebound thus far has been on ever decreasing volume, so it was not caused by the big guys.
So, where does the SPY go from here. From global economic conditions, the actions of the Fed, and the market's technical indicators, one could make a good case for the SPY to go up (to over 200) or down (to below 160) from here. And, we at MIPS sure don't have a prediction either way at this time (but MIPS will in ample time).
If outside conditions don't greatly surprise us, we believe that the SPY will go up and try (at least several times) to break through its previous high of $185 to the upside. If it does, there is not a consensus top where it may play out. On the other hand, if the SPY fails to break its previous high (again, after several tries) , it will most likely drop all the way back to $174. And, if it breaches its support at that level, then look for it to fall to 160 or lower. The worst case is that the SPY goes into a sideways trading pattern between 174-185, thus developing into a pattern that is ripe for whipsawing.
We will wait for the big guys to make up their minds and start their move, and then let MIPS tell us what to do, and when.
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